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Parliamentary debates and questions

S5W-04286: Lewis Macdonald (North East Scotland)

Scottish Labour

Date lodged: 2 November 2016

To ask the Scottish Government what estimates it has made of the impact of Brexit on passporting for financial services in Scotland.

Answered by: Keith Brown 25 November 2016

Analysis published by the Scottish Government (“Potential Implications of the UK Leaving the EU on Scotland’s Long Run Economic Performance”) on 23 August 2016 summarises the impact that leaving the EU could have on the Scottish economy based on a range of recent studies covering different trading relationships that the UK could adopt.

The analysis shows that the potential cost to Scottish GDP of leaving the European Union could be up to £11.2 billion per year by 2030 than under a scenario where the UK remains a member. The analysis also indicates that leaving the EU could result in a reduction in Scottish tax revenues of up to £3.7 billion a year by 2030.

Evidence published by the European and External Relations Committee based on analysis by the Fraser of Allander Institute confirms the risks Brexit poses to Scotland’s economy. The Fraser of Allander Institute forecast that leaving the EU could result in the number of people in employment being up to 80,000 lower after
10 years.