Date lodged: 13 September 2016
To ask the Scottish Government how much construction inflation has been applied in each year of the Forth Replacement Crossing project, and how this compares with the projections at Figure 12 in the Scottish Parliament Information Centre (SPICe) briefing 10/14, The Forth Replacement Crossing, Analysis of Costs.
Answered by: Keith Brown 21 September 2016
The Scottish Parliament Reference Centre (SPICe) briefing 10/14, 'The Forth Replacement Crossing, Analysis of Costs', identified the total outturn cost range of the Forth Replacement Crossing Project as £1.72 billion to £2.34 billion with a median of £2.044 billion. The inflation estimate included in these figures was an approximate range of £300 million to £750 million with a median of £529 million. This equated to an average median annual inflation rate of 5.3%.
The construction inflation applied in each year to the Principal Contract of the Forth Replacement Crossing Project from the baseline date of December 2010 to date has been (rounded to the nearest million):
Financial Year 2011-12 - £3 million
Financial Year 2012-13 - £7 million
Financial Year 2013-14 - £5 million
Financial Year 2014-15 - £6 million
Financial Year 2015-16 - £4 million
Total to end of Financial Year 2015-16 - £25 million
The lower than expected levels of inflation have been incorporated into the updated budget forecasts for the Forth Replacement Crossing Project resulting in the current total outturn cost range being £1.325 billion to £1.35 billion.